A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
